How does the Montreal Protocol preserve Arctic ice?
How does the Montreal Protocol preserve Arctic ice?
When scientists discovered the ozone hole above Antarctica in 1985, countries around the world came together and wrote a treaty designed to protect the ozone layer, the layer that protects us – and the species around us – from harmful levels of ultraviolet radiation.
All countries of the world have ratifiedMontreal Protocol, to be the only international treaty ratified by all countries, and this was in 1987, before it entered into force in 1989. This protocol regulated the production and consumption of about 100 man-made chemicals, and are called: Substances Ozone Depleting System (ODS).
The purpose of the Protocol was to reduce concentrations of ozone-depleting substances in the atmosphere (stratospheric ozone), especially those substances commonly used in products such as refrigerators, air conditioners, fire extinguishers, and others.
The Montreal Protocol had an important role in limiting the expansion of the ozone hole, which had a positiveimpact on many other environmental and climatic aspects, whether directly or indirectly. The success of the Montreal Protocol has also expressed the unprecedented level of cooperation between the parties of the international community, and an example of cooperation between the public and private sectors, and how this cooperation can do a lot for our planet.
A new study shows the extent of the impact of the Montreal Protocol
A new study led by climate researchers at Columbia Engineering and the University of Exeter has shown that the positive impact of the agreement appears in many places on the planet, even in the Arctic. Complying with the agreement would delay the occurrence of the first summer ice-free Arctic by up to 15 years, a number that was reached based on future emissions data.
The disappearance of ice from the Arctic in the summer – if it occurs – will be considered by many climate workers to be a sad milestone in the history of climate change. The results of the study show that the climate benefits resulting from the Montreal Protocol are not the kind that require centuries to appear, but rather we see the positive effects of this agreement today. Effective implementation of the Protocol currently delays the melting of sea ice in the Arctic, and this is what a successful climate treaty does, as it produces measurable results within a few decades of implementation, and is an indicator of the determination and sincerity of the international community’s collective intentions to solve a problem.
Effect of ozone-depleting substances
The rapid melting of sea ice in the Arctic is the biggest and clearest sign of human-induced climate change, as current projections indicate that the first ice-free summer in the Arctic will likely occur by 2050, largely due to increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
However, other powerful Greenhouse Gases (GHGs), particularly ozone-depleting substances, also caused loss of Arctic sea ice, but when ODS became more strictly regulated by the Montreal Protocol, starting in the late 1980s, their atmospheric concentrations declined after a few years.
Because of their distinct molecular structures, these ozone-depleting substances are tens of thousands of times more potent at causing global warming than carbon dioxide, even though they are less common in the atmosphere.
Analysis of new climate model simulations
The researchers analyzed new climate model simulations and found that, as previously indicated, the Montreal Protocol delays the appearance of the first ice-free summer in the Arctic by up to 15 years, based on an estimate of average future carbon dioxide emissions. After this, the researchers compared the rates of global warming that are estimated to be caused by ozone-depleting substances if the Montreal Protocol is implemented – and the rates if the international community fails to implement it. Under two scenarios that depict future carbon dioxide emissions expectations between the years 1985 – 2050.
The results of this analysis showed that if the Montreal Protocol did not exist, the average surface temperature of the Earth would be approximately 0.5°C warmer, while the Arctic would be approximately 1°C warmer in 2050.
This mitigation of global warming is extremely important. Although ozone-depleting substances are not as abundant – like other Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere – they have a more serious effect on global warming. Ozone-depleting substances have strong effects, especially in the Arctic, and they were an important driver of Arctic climate change in the second half of the twentieth century, although stopping these effects has not been achieved. As a major goal of the Montreal Protocol, it was a wonderful secondary goal.
Continuous monitoring is critical
The Montreal Protocol has succeeded – since the mid-nineties – in reducing concentrations of ozone-depleting substances in the atmosphere, and there is evidence indicating that the ozone layer has begun to recover, but recent research has indicated a slight increase in concentrations of ozone-depleting substances in the period between the years 2010 – 2020; Therefore, it is necessary that we continue to monitor the concentrations of these substances in the ozone layer, while ensuring the implementation of the Montreal Protocol.
In conclusion, the lessons learned from the Montreal Protocol are many, but the most important of them is the great ability of the international community to achieve huge leaps in the climate file if it has sincere determination and public interest prevails; Real cooperation between countries of the world – as well as between governments and private companies – has borne fruit less than 4 decades after the signing of the Montreal Convention. That is why we must all be aware that what we do today will reap the benefits tomorrow, and that the responsibility placed on humanity now requires a lot of us.
