Ambassador Mohamed Nasr in an exclusive interview with the Earth Guards magazine

Ambassador Mohamed Nasr in an exclusive interviewFor the Earth Guards magazine

Ambassador/ Mohamed Nasr “Director of the Department of Climate Change, Environment and Sustainable Development at the Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs”:

• The transformation process is the most important thing facing developing countries.
• Climate change is no longer predictable.
• Some skeptic voices attacked us because of personal convictions.
• The success of climate adaptation strategies is still limited.
• CPAM is a very bad mechanism.

The phenomenon of climate change has become a global challenge. Rather, it has become a problem that all peoples must confront. Therefore, Egypt – through its presidency of the Twenty-Seventh Conference of the Parties (COP) in Sharm El-Sheikh last year – sought to mobilize global capabilities. For comprehensive climate action. Because the world is currently rife with many crises, the most important of which is the energy crisis, which could destroy the hopes of the countries of the world to implement the recommendations of the Paris Agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions – Earth Guards magazine had this dialogue with Ambassador Mohamed Nasr, “Director of the Department of Climate Change, Environment and Sustainable Development in the Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs”… So here are the lines of the dialogue.

Given your closeness to the issue of climate change, what are the most important challenges facing developing countries in this regard?

The transition process is the most important thing facing developing countries, and how to implement the transition to a low-carbon economy, in accordance with the Paris Agreement, and the transition – also – to an economy that deals with climate change and its effects, in a fair way that allows us to implement it without negative effects, whether in economic or social aspects.

In recent years, climate science has developed significantly. Has this affected the development of international legal frameworks for combating climate change?

Of course, all climate changes and their expectations depend on the usual temperatures – hot, dry summers, cold, rainy winters – but climate change is no longer predictable; Due to rising temperatures and greenhouse gas emissions. This makes the interaction between parts of the climate system – whether heat, water vapor, or rain – a reason for the occurrence of effects whose quantities or extent of impact are not yet known to humans.

All of this is based on expectations, and depends on scenarios. Any scientific report depends – essentially – on developing multiple scenarios, each of which is dependent on a number of factors that may lead to different environmental impacts. All scenarios indicate that the higher the temperature, the more severe and frequent the effects will be, in addition to the fact that the time and place of these effects will become unpredictable. Therefore, the importance of advancing science and technology in this field appears, as increasing relevant research and studies is an opportunity to obtain more accurate predictions.

Perhaps the most difficult challenges in combating climate change lie in financing. How do we work to address this problem, especially in light of the current global crises?

Financing is a cornerstone of implementation for developing countries, and a major problem in negotiations, and the higher the level of ambition in the measures expected from countries – especially developing countries – the greater the obstacles. This transition to a new economic model requires a social and economic cost, and this new economic model, which is based on low emissions rates and is based on renewable energy; It is not only linked to the shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy, but rather it is a shift in everything.

The best example of this: electric cars. The change from regular cars to electric cars is linked to a number of factors, including research and development, and is also linked to the entire ecosystem, as well as to mechanics and their role in this transformation, and is also linked to gasoline stations that will turn into electricity stations. The entire system will change, and this is not as easy as we expect, but rather it is more difficult and more complex.

If financing were not available to developing countries, the expected implementation by 2030 would be less. Therefore, by 2028, we will find that implementation is insufficient, and we will then need to strengthen implementation. The cornerstone of this whole story is financing, and this financing must be appropriate in quantity and quality, at the appropriate time, and with the appropriate tools. And not with loans, as this has become difficult for developing countries, and it is not their responsibility to implement this transformation. Rather, they must do so when easy financing is available in the form of grants, or through very easy loans. So that these countries can implement the transition process.

Another point that should be taken into consideration is that developing countries actually spend their budgets on transformation projects and adaptation to climate change to deal with climate losses and damage. The closest example of this is the heavy rain that occurs over the Red Sea, as the classification takes into account a certain degree of this rain, but climate change has become severe. Consequently, these rains became more severe than before. The damage that occurs is borne by the state, as well as the individuals who are directly affected by it. As for developed countries, even if they contribute to this type of financing, they have an insurance system and financial capabilities that allow them to confront the effects of these changes.

Developing countries have development needs; Because it has not yet reached the level of prosperity and growth of developed countries. Hence the gap is different and so is the approach. But in negotiations, the idea always prevails that we are in a very bad situation, and that if we do not act immediately, the situation will become worse. So we must all move in one direction.

There are some criticisms directed at the final decision inCOP27, so how do you respond to these criticisms?

This – unfortunately – is a large part of the negotiations and also part of the media appearance, and given the difficulty and complexity of the negotiations, each party is trying to find the language and terminology that suits its desires. Egypt’s vision in dealing with climate change was based on three basic things:

First– Considering scientific recommendations, and this is the basis.

Second– That the movement be within the framework of the general principles referred to in the Paris Agreement, as a multilateral framework; It is not acceptable to change the principles agreed upon in this agreement.

Last– The implementation of that approach must be an actual implementation, and not just an unenforceable statement or decision; We cannot announce our intention to exit fossil fuels – for example – without discussing the reality challenges represented by the cost of this process, and without examining the sources of its financing.

From this standpoint, the decisions of the Egyptian presidency of COP27, such as the resolutions of the assembly – unlike the decisions that are usually issued – looked with importance at how to implement the goals, not in an unrealistic way, but in a more realistic way, with the implementation of these goals through science and principles, and then the required implementation mechanism.

Therefore, our decision was focused on the idea of a just transition for developing countries, as we must take into account that the transition from one model to another must take into account the economic and social dimensions. Developing countries may, for example, shift to the field of sustainable transportation, and here the shift will include how to deal with vehicle drivers, and these means of transportation must provide financial benefit to their owners. It is a model that only exists in developing countries.

We also took into account maintaining the goal of 1.5 degrees Celsius, and science tells us that we need a trillion dollars – or four – annually; In order to achieve this goal, but this money does not exist yet! As for the issue of exiting from fossil fuels, no one said that we would exit in a specific way! However, pushing this issue – when we still live in a world with many energy problems – is incorrect. To address the matter, the entire system must be reformed, and any other method may cause losses that only developing countries and their people will bear.

Egypt has responded to all the demands that were made before and during the Sharm El-Sheikh Conference. Including the issue of energy. The Sharm El-Sheikh conference was the first Conference of the Parties (COP) to call for discussing the exit from fossil fuels in particular. However, our formulation of the exit decision came in an administrative form, with our focus on implementing an increase in the proportion of renewable energy in all sectors. So the meaning of our saying: “Increasing the percentage of renewable energy at all levels” is: “Reducing the use of traditional energy.” This is logical and positive. Despite this, we were attacked by some voices of skeptics, who were high-level representatives of countries. This is due to personal convictions. I wish they had read the final decision objectively and impartially!

These days, the world is preparing to hold the twenty-eighth Conference of the Parties (COP) at the end of November in the Emirates. What do you expect from this conference?

Every COP builds on the previous conferences, and we – the Egyptians – have begun the implementation story, and I believe that the UAE has built its vision in COP28 on the implementation vision that was discussed in COP27, especially with regard to the Loss and Damage Fund, which was established in Sharm El Sheikh and will be activated in Dubai, and the next step will be to mobilize the resources of this fund.

But the UAE has an important and different model; It is important in that the UAE is a country built on the energy that it produces from multiple and diverse sources. It has nuclear energy, and it has gas and oil. It has a model for the issue of diversifying energy sources, a clear vision for reducing its emissions, and a vision – also – for the issue of energy transformation. It wants to reflect all of this in the negotiations, and this is clear from their conversation. It may be considered ambitious for some people, and more ambitious for others, but – in the end – the Emiratis have a clear vision.

In addition, the UAE has a correct perception and understanding of the necessity of financing, which is a major obstacle. The current situation makes us say that the issue is still very difficult, and we are waiting to see the extent of the pressure from countries. This is reflected in the issue of financing. All of this system allows or leads to the establishment of a successful conference. Therefore, all that remains is to find a balance between these elements, which are: reducing emissions, adapting to climate change, financing, and calculating losses and damages, in addition to the general perception of the topic obtaining the “Global Stocktake”, which was previously discussed in the framework agreement, but will now be discussed in a larger and broader way, with a view to the gaps, implementation, and anticipating the future. All of this allows the UAE presidency and the international community to reflect an ambitious vision for the next stage.

Is this executable?

All of this is subject to progress or delay, and there are many decisions that have not been implemented, and in order to implement them we need a catalyst, which is something that everyone sees as a dilemma, and what is required is funding. Is this through rehabilitating and forming financial institutions? Or by requesting money to Ukraine or Israel, for example. Like any matter revolving around money, each party places responsibility on the others, and this is the dilemma.

There is not a single country that is unwilling to reach net zero emissions, all people want this; In order to preserve the current and future generations, but what is important here is to look at how to implement this. Therefore, there are dozens of plans and strategies for this matter, and the biggest question here remains: how to implement them, what is the amount of resources required, and what will the international cooperation mechanism look like?

Unfortunately, the international system faces major challenges, not only because of the war in Ukraine and Gaza, but also because of very many unilateral measures that have begun to spread recently, measures that have negative effects on other arrangements closely related to the field of climate finance.

Regarding the energy transition, should all countries work on this green transformation through a unified model, or is the matter different from one country to another?

We have said this a lot in Sharm El-Sheikh. There are different models, and we must realize that controlling this transformation is based on different paths. The beginnings are different, the resources are also different, and the challenges are different. Ultimately, the green transition – by 2050 – will achieve the global goal. Developing countries look to developed countries as the party that will pay the costs of the transition, and the latter must bear responsibility for the risks related to the effects of their emissions. Because it is a major cause of the global climate crisis.

The world is now targeting two climate axes, the first is combating climate change, and the other is: adapting to the effects of these changes; To what extent have countries achieved success in the field of climate adaptation?

The success of climate adaptation strategies is still limited, as is reducing emissions! The problem of climate adaptation at the national level lies in our need for a clear definition, but scientific reports say: The biggest and most important challenges in the climate file are those related to the effects of climate change, which come in the form of human and economic losses.

Reading the reports of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reveals the extent of global devastation, as it shows that there is noticeable land degradation, severe water pollution, and a significant increase in the death rate. These are all effects resulting from the changing climate, and they push us to explain the meaning of adaptation, which is building strategies capable of containing the effects of climate change and reducing the size of the losses that occur, and this is something we have not yet agreed upon; Because it is a very large part of the differences, as it is linked to the historical responsibility of developed countries.

These strategies will be discussed at the twenty-eighth Conference of the Parties (COP) in the UAE, and the question here is: How do we measure the progress of countries in achieving these strategies? This will be done by setting a target that we can compare with other data; For example, the death of a thousand people annually due to climate change requires, in order for adaptation to be successful, to reduce the rate of this death to 500. That is, take whatever measures you want, then after specific years tell us that the 1000 became 700 or 500 or 400, or that 1000 increased to 1100 or 1200; This means that you are either on the right path or not, and if this thousand remains as it is, it means that we have not achieved any results.

This also means that you must have a reference, and this reference will enhance your ability to reduce losses and your ability to contain climate impacts. An example of this is: heavy rain falling that causes damage to the road. If we build the road again and the rain causes less damage; We will then say: We reduced the losses.

Egypt is a country with an industrial base dependent on traditional energy; Therefore, the “green economy” methodology was developed to achieve sustainable development within the framework of Egypt’s Vision 2030, but what is the role of the private sector in helping this transformation?

Most types of renewable energy belong to the private sector. The state owns the Zaafarana station, and the rest of the energy projects – such as Benban – are owned by the private sector. The current global – and also local – trend is to give the private sector the opportunity in this field. Because it has significant financial potential, not only in the field of energy, but in the field of transportation, and other fields in which the private sector can invest.

Egypt has successful experiences with regard to private sector investments in this field, such as: the sewage plants project (Abu Rawash). This project is a partnership with the “BOT” system, and here the state – or the government – turns from being the owner of energy production sources to a mere regulator between the producer and the consumer, or buys from this and sells to that, and the role of the state then becomes to monitor the stages of project implementation.

This, countries have begun to turn to this system, in addition to setting energy prices, except in European countries, which leave the matter to the market mechanism; For example, it costs the state 5 cents to produce energy, then sells it for 7 cents, and pays the network owner half a cent per kilowatt, and the government thus earns an appropriate profit.

The question here is: Can the policies for setting energy prices followed by developed countries be implemented? It is known that the energy field in developing countries is supported; Therefore, the investor will not obtain the desired financial profit, as he will sell the kilowatt/watt for 3 cents, which is now multiplied by four. That is, 12 cents, and the government will sell it for 5, 7, or 10 cents. Who will pay the price difference? This is the major economic and social dilemma in “energy transition” projects.

Does this mean that we need to amend the laws?

This is actually achieved at the Benban Solar Power Plant, which is the largest solar power plant in the world outside China and India. However, the problem is something else: If the European Union – for example – wanted to implement a carbon tax, and these taxes depend – of course – on production inputs, and the most influential production input is energy: electricity; Here, the manufacturer buys energy from Benban, and the government receives only the transportation cost. This means that he bought green energy; Therefore, the carbon tax imposed on the product will be reduced, instead of purchasing it from a petrol station, or a station based on kerosene or diesel.

What do you think about the “CPAM” mechanism of carbon leakage?

CPAM is a very bad mechanism; Because it is centered on commercial competition, it is far from climate issues. The Europeans are the ones who promote this mechanism as being related to the climate, but the truth is not that. The idea of “CPAM” may be ostensibly linked to the climate, but when implemented, it is far from it.

Reducing the emissions of products manufactured internally is a positive thing, but suppose that a non-European country imposes a certain tax and price on this manufacturer, then someone comes – within the European Union – and buys these certificates related to carbon emissions, and supports his industry in Europe with them. This is completely outside the climate issue.

Even if the Europeans were sincere in this climate approach – according to their claim – they would not have stipulated the purchase of certificates outside the European Union, the price of which is 100 euros each, when others cannot buy other certificates at a lower price, such as buying them for 5 euros from Gabon. Moreover, they do not pump the money to purchase these certificates into climate projects that developing countries need. What climate are they talking about?!

At the end of the meeting, Homat Al-Earth magazine thanks the “Director of the Department of Climate Change, Environment and Sustainable Development at the Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs,” Ambassador Mohamed Nasr, who explained the importance of the shift towards a green economy, and explained the most prominent results of COP27; All of this is in order to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) within the framework of “Egypt Vision 2030”.