The Chinese demographic experience…lessons that Africa can benefit from
The Chinese demographic experience…lessons that Africa can benefit from
For decades – until now –Chinahas been the largest country in the world in terms of population, but that is about to change. When its population reached its peak, rates indicated that China’s population was declining.
It is no secret thatChina has achieved record levels of economic growth over the past four decades. Which subsequently led toreducing povertyand raising per capita income. Between 1978 and 2018, the Chinese economy grew at a rate of 9.8% annually, and today it is the second largest economy in the world after the United States.
The Chinese demographic experience played a major role in the development of this huge Asian country, as the rise in the number of births led to a boom in the number and percentage of the working-age population since the 1970s, and this contributed about 15% of China’s growth from 1980 to 2000. China has benefited from its demographic profile through supportive policies to enhance the capabilities of its working-age segments of the population, and it is now reaping the fruits of this. Policies.
But what lessons can Africa learn from China’s demographic experience? This is despite the fact that China differs radically from African countries in many respects, whether geographical, social or political.
Transitions in development policy
Successive Chinese governments were always concerned that China would turn into an aging nation over time (an increase in the proportion of the elderly), before achieving its goal of becoming a rich country, and as early as the 1980s – when China was still young and poor – the fear was that this would hinder development in the long term; To avoid this, China revised its development policy.
Initially, China exploited the potential of the low-wage demographic dividend of its working-age population (young and poor) in the late 1970s. After this, it prepared to support its economy and establish care programs for hundreds of millions of elderly people.
Following the baby boom in the 1950s and 1960s – from the mid-1970s to 2010 – the share of the working-age population (people aged 15 to 65 years) increased from 55% to 73% of the total Chinese population.
To curb the steady population increase, China established the “one-child” policy, which is the policy that the government adopted in the period between 1978 and 2015, and through which it was able to prevent 400 million new births, according to Chinese government statements.
On the other hand, exploiting the productive potential of this huge working population helped drive the reforms that opened the doors of the Chinese economy to the world since late 1978. A key aspect of opening up to foreign direct trade and investment was the coastal development strategy, where special economic zones were created to attract foreign investment.
In addition to the above, in the 1990s China expanded and developed the university education sector. It also undertook political reforms that would ultimately support new sources of growth later, when China’s border economic regions needed to be driven by quality, rather than quantity, of labor. This reform included manufacturing and higher value-added services, as well as improved pensions and wealth management.
China’s future vision made it realize the magnitude of the shift from a large burden of infectious diseases to a greater burden of chronic diseases as its population grows older, to confront this by providing a basic level of health insurance even to the poorest and most remote people, a file that has received more attention since 2010.
Lessons that Africa can learn from the Chinese demographic experience
It is certain that the Chinese demographic experience in curbing population growth has a lot to do with the success of its approach to development, which is an approach that we can say is suitable for all countries – if it is appropriately adapted and exploited – including African countries, where life expectancy is increasing, which usually means that the proportion of the population of elderly people is rising.
African countriescover a wide range of demographic spectrum. For example, Mauritius is considered an old country when compared to other African countries; Because more than 7% of citizens are 65 years old, or even older. By contrast, countries such as Zambia, Angola and Niger are young, with just over 2% of the population aged 65 or over.
In this context, “young” countries need to invest more inbasic health care, especially maternal health, as basic health care ultimately reduces the birth rate; Given the confidence that every child will survive, these countries also need to invest in education, especially primary education for all children.
At the same time, it is important to raise the productivity of each worker, and adapt to the newtechnological revolution, as this can lead to a pool of well-trained graduates in the fields of science and technology in particular.
In conclusion, there is no doubt that improvements in public health – among other factors – have led to many developing countries now experiencing a decline in mortality rates and an increase in birth rates; Hence, many countries are aging without becoming rich, which represents a threat to many poor elderly people and a stagnation in national economic prospects; Perhaps this is why it is important to strengthen economic development policies in parallel withdemographic change, which is what China did when it was a poor and young country.
By learning fromChinese demographic experienceand adapting it to the nature of each society, African countries can realize their economic and demographic potential; So that it can gradually transform into achievingsustainable developmentthat meets the needs of its people and guarantees the future of its coming generations.
