Fossil fuel money or human lives?
In the last hours of December 12, the faces of the participants in the twenty-eighth climate conference were frozen. In front of expectant eyes, shouts of condemnation spread throughout the hall, and horns of disapproval sounded. So that the Dubai desert will be the scene of a new global climate conflict, adding to the series of conferences of the parties that have long been a dead letter.
Then Tuesday night passed in arguments and verbal exchanges until just before dawn, and there Dr. Sultan Al Jaber - President of the Conference - tried to save what could be saved; To return the negotiations to their agreed path, I suggest that the parties extend their negotiations to another day. The morning of the thirteenth - Wednesday - of December was a final opportunity to heal the recurring rift between the world's poor and its rich.
The climate resolution onCOP28 on the twelfth of December was cloudy in terms and vague in terms, especially the item related to fossil fuels - coal, oil and gas - as the UAE presidency of the conference did not formulate this item in the language of elimination - that is, the gradual elimination of fossil fuels - but rather its wording was devoid of commitments. The path towards getting rid of fossil fuels, which is a major obstacle in the history of climate conferences.
Then, the sun of the thirteenth of December shone on tired faces and weak hearts, and in the first hours of that hot Wednesday the agreement came in a new, long-awaited language, as it was the first time of its kind that a final resolution explicitly mentioned the issue of fossil fuels, and this since the twenty-sixth Conference of the Parties (COP), in which only the global elimination of coal was mentioned, without mentioning oil and gas.
Reduction or elimination?
But, what's next? The history of climate negotiations remains unfortunate. Those countries that do not like a decision in one year seek to cancel it in the following year, as if we are taking one step forward and taking two steps back! While many global voices came at COP28 with the inevitability of the two goals - elimination and reduction - these same voices confirm that reality does not reflect this inevitability, as there are still existing national projects in many countries - especially developing countries - based on fossil fuels. If the question of elimination or reduction is raised, then this is within a framework - which is what everyone wants - that is fair and comprehensive.
Either gradual reduction or gradual elimination, and the latter is compatible with the provisions of the Paris Agreement, which called for limiting the temperature rise above 1.5 degrees Celsius. The problem is clearly represented by the needs of developing countries, imposed by their economic burdens, as they are countries dependent on oil for production and investment, and are not financially prepared for this elimination - or even reduction - of fossil fuels.
Is carbon capture dodgy?
While the draft Dubai Climate Agreement came out - on Monday, December 11th - disappointing the hopes of many developed countries, which seek to gradually get rid of fossil fuels - the oil-producing countries are trying to promote a realistic view, in a clear indication that getting rid of them has great obstacles and challenges. Therefore, those oil countries suggested that the draft resolution - and therefore its final version - avoid referring to the elimination of fossil fuels, and that the world’s goal be gradual reduction, in response to that realistic view.
This realistic call was based on recommending technological measures, the most prominent of which was doubling the capacity of new and renewable energy three times. Then came the most important recommendation, which is activating technological technologies that reduce emissions, and here specifically referring to the technology of carbon capture and storage, so our next question will be about the feasibility of all of this; So that the States Parties - and the entire world - are faced with an equation: either humans or fossil fuel money!
On the other hand, steps such as the use of carbon-free alternatives, with increased reliance on clean energy, as well as the introduction of carbon capture and storage technology - may be a magical solution at first glance, and capable of addressing this equation on the surface of the matter. However, many parties do not see resorting to this solution as anything other than clear procrastination, and that the matter requires sincere intention and an actual effort to get rid of fossil fuels and their effects, which It has polluted humans and their environment for decades and decades.
Not only that, but the world must look objectively at this technology, just as the oil countries, with their clear petroleum intentions, looked at the difficulty of getting rid of fossil fuels! Carbon capture and storage technology is an obstacle no less serious than the obstacles facing the climate and combating its changes in all fields and sectors. This obstacle is that it is an expensive technology, and here we are back to square zero.
Then developing countries and emerging economies will be faced with two bitter choices: either get rid of fossil fuels, which will cause them huge financial losses, or reduce them, and their efforts will be hampered in the face of the funds needed for that green transformation. In both cases, these developing countries will continue to struggle for survival in the face of the reduction and elimination teams.
From Sharm El Sheikh to Expo
إذنْ، تؤدي الاحتمالات كلها إلى الوقوف أمام مشكلة التمويل، فهي عقبة أمام كل قضايا المناخ تكيُّفًا ومكافحةً؛ Therefore, COP28 brought to mind Egypt’s pioneering role, which was represented by the launch of what was called the “Loss and Damage Fund,” and this was through its presidency of the Twenty-Seventh Conference of the Parties (COP) in Sharm El-Sheikh last year.
At COP27, Egypt was taking into account the dangerous increase in global warming rates that climate change issues had reached; Its role was to launch the Loss and Damage Fund for poor and developing countries affected by the repercussions of climate change.
We can say: It is a historic step, and it was a major start towards greater interest in climate finance, and then the next stop was Expo, that Emirati city that a few days ago witnessed a historic agreement - which is an extension of Egypt’s previous role - in activating the fund and supporting it in a serious way. So that Egypt and the Emirates will be a unified front against the effects of climate change, through actual efforts and historical implementation witnessed by the whole world.
In the coming days, these concrete Arab steps will be believed, or reality will deny them if the parties fail to support energy projects and green transformation projects in all fields. In order for this Arab endeavor to be realistic, the UAE presidency of the twenty-eighth Climate Conference supported a set of decisions - in addition to the decision to activate the Loss and Damage Fund - that help strengthen and support international financing mechanisms, which are supposed to provide developing countries and emerging economies with funds and innovative solutions that enable them to overcome the climate plight and its challenges in the future.
Where is the road?
At COP28, the Presidency of the Conference announced that the State of Azerbaijan will host the twenty-ninth Conference of the Parties (COP) next year, and also announced Brazil’s intention to host the thirtieth session of the conference - COP30 - in the Amazon region in 2025. But before we look to the land of the upcoming climate conferences of the parties, we must evaluate and measure the extent to which we have achieved in reducing the rise in global warming rates, and evaluate the goals of the agreement Paris, and what has been achieved on the ground so far.
The best thing that can be done, and the shortest path to achieving global climate goals, is: It is transparency, not only the activation of the enhanced transparency framework of the Paris Agreement, which explicitly calls on states parties to declare national goals that are consistent with regional and global goals, and to disclose data on their progress in achieving climate goals - but we must also all move away from prioritizing private interest over public interest. Especially the presidents of the Conferences of the Parties, who should not be party to two conflicting interests, the climate interest and the money interest!
Also, the countries that host these conferences should not give priority to an interest that harms the world’s climate; إذْ لا يمكن أنْ تتحققَ أهدافُ المناخ العالمية في ظل اهتمام بسوق الوقود الأحفوريّ، والذي تُطوره شركاتُ النفط على الرغم من أننا نسعى -هكذا نقول- إلى التخلص من الوقود الأحفوريّ.
لذا، يجب التوقف عن "الغسل الأخضر"، وأنْ نهتمَّ بتطوير آليات التمويل، وندعمَ استراتيجيات التحول إلى الطاقة الجديدة في المجالات كلها والقطاعات كافةً؛ Until the conferences of the parties bear fruit and achieve their desired goals.
In conclusion,Defenders of the Earth has been - and will continue to be - a supporter of all development and environmental plans in line with Egypt’s Vision 2030, taking into account the global goals; Therefore, it sees financing as a mechanism of great importance, as it is a responsibility that everyone must develop and activate with the participation of governments and private sectors. For a sustainable life and a world free of diseases.
