Global climate change reports ask: Why is avoiding exceeding 1.5 degrees no longer possible?

It is no longer possible to limit the effects of climate change or stop global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius, even if only temporarily. However, the 2026 Emissions Gap Report – issued by the United Nations Environment Program on October 21 – confirms that the loss is not final; Because sharply reducing global emissions and removing carbon from the atmosphere may return global temperature to 1.5 degrees by 2100!

Hence, The Earth Guards Foundation sheds light on this UN report, exploring the challenges it entails and the effective solutions it presents, in light of the sustainable development goals. seventeen; So keep reading.

What does the 2026 report say about climate change?

The report is titled “The Point of Return” when it declares that global warming will exceed the threshold of 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels, which is the most ambitious goal set by the Paris Agreement in 2015, but exceeding does not mean that it is permanent.

The reason for this was explained by Anne Olhoff, Director of the Copenhagen Climate Centre, affiliated with the United Nations Environment Programme, saying: “ We have spent decades postponing emissions reductions, and we are now facing the consequences of that ”. She adds to her statement that the world is still capable of achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement, provided that more global attention is paid, in order to achieve Goal 13 of the Sustainable Development Goals: Action Climate

Why is 1.5 degrees important?

The number of 1.5 degrees is so important because every additional year above this threshold raises the risk of major and irreversible climate changes, which is why the Emissions Gap Report 2026 identifies four systems that are vulnerable to this, which are:

• Ice sheets
• Carbon stored in permafrost
• Ocean Circulation
• Coral reefs.

What is the best possible scenario now?

The UNEP Emissions Gap Report presents a “lowest possible” scenario of exceedance, The peak of warming will reach approximately 1.7 to 1.8 degrees by the middle of the current century, and then the temperature will return to 1.5 degrees or less. This requires us to work to reduce emissions and remove carbon dioxide together.

What should be done?

An immediate and sharp reduction in greenhouse gas emissions is required, according to this table:

This equates to an annual reduction of about 6%, which is more severe than the paths in the latest IPCC reports. If countries start this year and stick to the path, the probability of returning to 1.5 degrees by 2100 is 50%.

Why have emissions not decreased yet?

Global emissions have risen at an average annual rate of 0.8% over the past decade, then remain at 2025 levels Nearly identical to 2024 levels, carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels, the most common greenhouse gas, rose.

So the argument for the 2026 Emissions Gap Report is based on a clear trade-off between two paths, not on declaring a climate loss. The first path is a limited bypass path, in which the temperature peaks between 1.7 and 1.8 degrees and then decreases. The other path is an open bypass path in which the damage of global carbon emissions accumulates. The difference between them is the rate of reduction in the next fifteen years, equivalent to about 6% annually until 2040, and not the target destination. That is, the year 2100.

Therefore, the most dangerous conclusion The Earth Guards Foundation here is that the fate of crossing the threshold 1.5 degrees is determined by what we actually reduce emissions in the coming years, not by what we promise to eliminate decades later; Because every postponement of the reduction prolongs the period of exceedance, and raises the risk of reaching points of no return in ice sheets, permafrost, ocean currents, and coral reefs.

The Foundation also believes that climate action is inseparable from sustainable development. Doubling renewable energy serves Goal 7 and Goal 13 together, and communities with the least resources are the least able to withstand a drought or flood that occurs after crossing the threshold. Therefore, investing in climate change adaptation needs to go hand in hand with reducing emissions.