Global trade turmoil threatens food security in Africa and affects supply chains

Global trade chains are witnessing a state of turmoil with the escalation of military tensions in the Middle East, as the repercussions of the conflict have begun to be reflected in the movement of supplies on which many developing economies depend. In this context, food security stands out among the most fragile issues vulnerable to these developments, especially on the African continent, a large number of whose countries depend on imports to secure agricultural production requirements and basic commodities.

Concerns are increasing in light of the disruption of trade movement through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most important sea lanes in the world, through which large quantities of oil, gas, and fertilizers pass. With the escalation of tensions in the region, these developments began to raise questions about the ability of many African countries to maintain stable food security in light of the disruptions in supply chainsand the high costs of agricultural production.

War disrupts agricultural supply chains

The conflict in the Middle East has disrupted trade movement through the Strait of Hormuz, which represents a vital corridor for a large part of global maritime trade, including the trade in agricultural fertilizers. These supplies are of particular importance to countries that depend on imports to provide basic agricultural inputs.

With the complexity of maritime transport in the region, the effects of these disturbances began to appear in global markets, as fertilizer prices rose as a result of geopolitical tensions. In light of this reality, there are fears that the continued disruption of supply chains will lead to additional pressures on the agricultural sector in many developing African countries, which are highly dependent on fertilizer imports.

Africa’s dependence on fertilizer imports

Many African countries depend greatly on importing fertilizers via sea routes coming from the Gulf region. International data indicate that a large percentage of fertilizers used in some countries arrive via these sea routes, which makes them more vulnerable to any disruptions in trade.

In this context, the extent of dependence on these imports is clearly evident in a number of countries, as the proportion of fertilizers imported through these routes reaches more than half of the needs of some countries, while other countries depend on these supplies to secure an important part of their agricultural production. This dependence reflects the sensitivity of agricultural systems in these countries to any changes in the movement of global trade prices.

High fertilizer prices and its impact on food security

With fertilizer prices rising as a result of supply disruptions, the agricultural sector faces increasing challenges in many African countries. Fertilizers represent one of the most important agricultural inputs that farmers rely on to improve productivity and increase yields.

As the costs of these inputs increase, agricultural production costs in turn rise, which may be reflected in food prices in local markets, threatening food security in the region. With a large proportion of household income in Africa dependent on purchasing food, rising prices may put additional pressure on living standards, especially among the most economically vulnerable groups.

This directly intersects with the second goal of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), Zero Hunger, which focuses on ensuring everyone’s access to safe and adequate food, especially in light of the pressures imposed by global crises on supply chains and the rise in production costs.

Economies more vulnerable to shocks

African economies are more vulnerable to global shocks as a result of a number of structural factors, including dependence on external imports, weak infrastructure, and high levels of debt. Together, these factors increase the sensitivity of local economies to fluctuations in global markets.

Under these circumstances, the challenges facing governments in managing the economic pressures resulting from rising energy and commodity prices are increasing. This may prompt some countries to resort to additional support measures or financial policies to mitigate the effects of the crisis on citizens.

Government measures to confront the crisis

With mounting fears of the repercussions of the crisis, some African governments have begun to take precautionary steps to deal with the possibilities of rising energy prices and supply disruptions, in an attempt to limit the impact of these developments onfood securityin a number of countries. These measures include enhancing strategic fuel reserves or taking measures to ensure the continued flow of basic commodities, in addition to monitoring the movement of agricultural supplies on which the food production sector depends.

At the same time, some countries are seeking to provide financial support or mitigating policies to reduce the impact of rising prices on citizens, in an attempt to maintain economic and social stability in light of global fluctuations. In a broader context, these measures contribute to enhancing the ability of economic and food systems to adapt to external shocks, as securing basic supplies and alleviating pressures on local markets helps support the stability offood security and enhance the sustainability of economies and their resilience to geopolitical crises and global trade fluctuations.

In conclusion, these developments reflect the extent of the interconnection between geopolitical crises and the stability of food systems in various parts of the world. Disruption in supply chains and rising prices of agricultural inputs can directly affect the ability of countries to maintain stable food production and provide adequate supplies to the population.

TheThe Earth Guards Foundation highlights the necessity of strengtheningfood security, which requires building agricultural systems that are more resilient and able to face global shocks, including diversifying sources of agricultural supplies, developing local production, and enhancing the efficiency of supply chains. This trend contributes to supporting the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) related to eliminating hunger and enhancing sustainable agricultural production, in addition to building economies more able to adapt to changing global challenges.