What are the expected environmental impacts of increased desalination and climate change in the Gulf region until 2050?
What are the expected environmental impacts of increased water desalination and climate change in the Gulf region until 2050
A team of researchers from the Arab Center for Climate and Environmental Sciences at New York University Abu Dhabi (ACCESS) and the Center for Water Research studied how increased use of desalination technologies combined with projected climate change will affect salinity in the Arabian Gulf in the coming decades.
The countries bordering the Arabian Gulf are the countries that most use various water desalination technologies__EG_PH_12. This is to meet their needs for fresh water, given that these areas have natural characteristics that lack fresh water sources. Increased desalination will release larger amounts of brine (very high concentration of salt) resulting from treatment plants into the waters of the Arabian Gulf, and so far the impact of this on marine ecosystems and fisheries in the Gulf is not clear.
Expansion of treatment plants with climate change
In the paper titled “Long-Term Salinity Impacts of Desalination in the Arabian Gulf,” published in Scientific Reports, the researchers found that even under a worst-case climate change scenario, increases in salinity would be within the range of natural salinity changes resulting from evapotranspiration; Therefore, these slight changes in salinity are not expected to have environmental impacts on a Gulf scale, as marine life has adapted to the high and variable natural salinity.
The paper’s main finding was that any increase in salinity would lead to a corresponding increase in water flow through the Strait of Hormuz; Which will lead to the Gulf’s waters being replenished faster. Even in extreme scenarios, increases in salinity at the regional level are not expected to exceed the level that would have a significant impact on marine life in the Gulf, such as plants and animals, as these levels of increased salinity fall within the natural range to which living organisms in the Gulf have already been exposed for many years.
It seems that the main reason that may threaten biodiversity in the Gulf is the occurrence of a decrease or reduction in the levels of oxygen in the bodies of living organisms or in the waters, which will pose a greater threat to marine life in every part of the Gulf, as well as in the few coral reefs, as documented in previous research papers by these authors and other research at New York University Abu Dhabi, which are conditions not related to the discharge of brine resulting from water desalination.
While other studies have attempted to estimate the increase in salinity over large scales due to desalination, this study is the first model of its kind that also takes into account the potential future impacts of climate change, and since the Gulf region is home to the largest desalination plant complexes in the world, responsible for 45% of global freshwater desalination production, it is important to consider the long-term impacts of this industry.
The data collected in this study on the expected levels of salinity in the coastal waters of the Gulf can guide future studies to examine other impacts of large-scale desalination, such as the economic impacts of changes in the fishing industry, as this study demonstrated that there will be no clear impacts on the waters of the Arabian Gulf and the organisms they contain as a result of the expansion of desalination plants.
The future of water desalination in the Arabian Gulf region
Francesco Paparella, principal researcher at the Arab Center for Climate and Environmental Sciences at New York University Abu Dhabi, said: Our team’s research provides new and valuable insights into the impacts of this vital industry on the Gulf region. We have developed a reliable model that has allowed us to predict changes in salinity over the next few decades; This has enhanced the ability of our team and the larger scientific community to identify ways to better protect our ecosystems.
John Burt, a research associate at the Water Research Center of New York University Abu Dhabi and the Arab Center for Climate and Environmental Sciences, said: As we know, the Arabian Gulf is considered a marine system by nature, and over the past years and decades, an increasing portion of its water has been used for desalination purposes, which has raised some concerns about whether this practice may have environmental consequences, especially in an era of rapid global change. Climate.
Dr. Burt added: The results of this work show that increasing salinity, even in light of the worst climate forecasts, and increasing rates of water desalination in the coming decades are likely to have minimal effects on the level of salinity across the Gulf, and that it will be within natural salinity rates, as the organisms in this basin are already exposed to seasonal variation in salinity. While more research is needed on the processes occurring at more local levels around desalination plants, these results suggest that there is little cause for concern about increasing salinity at the scale of the Arabian Gulf Basin; As a result of the expansion of water desalination plants.
