Morocco earthquake
Can science predict earthquakes?The Moroccan tragedy givesa wake-up call for everyone
Shock, crying, searching for survivors or bodies under the rubble. These were the most prominent headlines printed on the first day in Moroccan newspapers after the devastating earthquake that struck the brotherly country. It is the most violent earthquake to hit the country in more than 120 years.
As of the date of writing these words, the number of victims of the Moroccan tragedy has approached three thousand, in addition to tens of thousands of displaced persons, in addition to the collapse of a large number of buildings. As a result of the earthquake that struck Morocco with a magnitude of 7 on the Richter scale, on the evening of September 8th.
The epicenter of the earthquake was in the Atlas Mountains, 71 kilometers southwest of Marrakesh. Its devastating effects made us ask a number of questions about whether it is possible for science to predict earthquakes, or not? Can its devastating effects be reduced in the future?
Geological nature in Morocco
The Earth's surface is generally composed of several tectonic plates, which are large parts of the planet's outer layer, that move against each other. This movement is responsible for various geological phenomena, such as earthquakes, volcanoes, and the formation of mountains and ocean basins.
The tectonic activity of Morocco includes - primarily - the convergence of the Eurasian and African plates, and this convergence and the resulting pressure led to the formation of the Atlas Mountains, which extend across Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia. Currently, the collision between these plates is causing the Atlas Mountains to contract, which explains the seismic activity of the region.
This convergence leads to the occurrence of what are known as faults, which is significant friction between tectonic plates that can lead to earthquakes, such as this recent earthquake.
In addition, the High Atlas Mountains - as many researchers have pointed out - have unique geological characteristics, where the outer and solid layer of the Earth, called the lithosphere; Thinner than normal, as well as an unusual height in the mantle (the layer below the Earth's crust), all of which are characteristics that can influence the occurrence of high-magnitude earthquakes.
Morocco’s history with earthquakes
Seismic activity and its phenomena - such as earthquakes - are not new to Morocco. Over the past thousand years, earthquakes that struck Morocco tended to occur mainly in two regions, either at sea, along the transform fault between the Azores and Gibraltar islands; Or on the coast, along the Rif Mountains in northern Morocco and the Atlas Mountains in northwestern Algeria.
Among the most prominent recent earthquakes that struck Morocco were in the years 1994, 2004, and 2016, with magnitudes ranging between 6.0 and 6.3, as they all occurred in the most seismically active region in Morocco, as well as in the western Mediterranean region.
Going back a little in history, we find that in February 1960, the devastating “Agadir” earthquake with a magnitude of 6.3 occurred around the border between the western High Atlas and the Anti-Atlas to the south, and available data indicate that between 12,000 and 15,000 people died because of this event.
Even before the establishment of seismographs, many important events were recorded in Morocco, including the Fez earthquake in 1624, which had a magnitude of 6.7, and the Agadir earthquake in 1731, which had a magnitude of 6.4.
Can science predict earthquakes?
The short answer to this question is: No, even with current knowledge in seismology and the advanced techniques that scientists use; The most that can be predicted are the areas where the earthquake is likely to occur, as scientists believe that accurate temporal and spatial prediction of earthquakes is not possible even in the future, and that the most they can do is identify the areas most vulnerable to earthquakes.
What scientists are currently doing is called long-range forecasting, which is conducted by studying seismic risks specifically in a region, and this is based on data from previous earthquakes in the region, whether historical or contemporary, along with available information about active ground faults, which can lead to earthquakes.
There is no doubt that the more knowledge one has about earthquakes and ground faults in a region, the more knowledge there will be about future seismic activity that may occur in this region. Seismic risk studies also include studying near-surface soil conditions and building characteristics, which helps assess potential damage from future earthquakes.
What can be done to reduce the impact of earthquakes?
Our best tool for reducing the impact of earthquakes is to conduct reliable studies to determine earthquake hazards; Therefore, the results of these studies must be used in amending and formulating building standard specifications. In this way, engineers can integrate the necessary safety factors into building designs, according to the geological nature of each region.
In addition to the above, building specifications and laws must take into account the characteristics of the soil of each region, the method of transmission of seismic waves, how the soil can amplify these waves, and the extent to which buildings and surrounding environments are affected. Of course, these previous factors differ from one region to another. Therefore, a deep study of the nature of each place is imperative. So that we can amend laws and specifications in a way that preserves lives and property.
Scientists say: Earthquakes do not kill people, but rather buildings kill them, the collapse of which mainly causes the number of deaths after each earthquake. Therefore, buildings that are built without appropriate structural support, and without adherence to the appropriate building specifications for the nature of each region; You will be the first killer when an earthquake occurs!
Therefore, it can be said: It is the sacred duty of every country to study - in detail - the geological nature of each region in it; Then formulate building specifications and regulating laws that take into account this nature, and this ensures the least damage in the future as a result of any earthquake.
