The gas crisis threatens South Africa in 2028… risks extending to industry and food
The gas crisis in South Africa is at a critical point in the energy file; Due to a decline in supplies coming from the Bande and Temane fields in southern Mozambique starting in 2028. These supplies reach the “Rombco” pipeline to the Mpumalanga province, where they feed a number of the largest industrial facilities in the country.
Although natural gas represents only about 2.5% of South Africa’s total energy supply, its economic impact far exceeds this percentage. It is involved in the production of industrial fuels, chemicals and fertilizers, and operates furnaces, boilers and production lines in the steel, glass, ceramics, paper, sugar and beverage sectors.
reveals the gas crisisIt is expected that the value of an energy source is measured by its share in the national mix, and also by the extent of vital industries’ dependence on it and the difficulty of replacing it. As we approach 2028, the ability of government and businesses to provide timely alternatives will be critical to protecting production, jobs and food security.
About 35% to 40% of the gas coming from the Bande and Timani fields goes to Sasol’s facilities in Secunda, where coal and natural gas are converted into synthetic fuels and raw materials used by the chemical industries.
A similar percentage goes to the company’s Sasolburg complex, which uses the gas to produce wax, methanol, ammonia and a range of other chemicals. The remaining portion is distributed to industrial and commercial users, including companies working in steel and sugarPaper, wood pulp and motor industries.
A large number of these activities rely on gas as part of the production process itself, and not just a source of heat. In the glass, ceramic and steel industry, furnaces require high and constant temperatures, while ammonia and methanol are involved in broad industrial and agricultural value chains.
Globally, gas provides about 70% of ammonia production, which is a major component in the fertilizer industry, and also supports between 55% and 65% of methanol production. Thus, the gas crisis extends from the energy sector to agriculture and food production, because the high cost of fertilizers or their shortage affects farmers and crop prices.
Also, converting factories to other sources requires more than replacing the type of fuel. Companies may have to redesign some production stages and install new storage systemsHandling, modification of furnaces and boilers, incurring downtime and additional capital costs.
Industry and jobs face high costs
The Industrial Gas Users Association of South Africa estimates that alternatives such as LPG, diesel and electricity could cost between two and five times the price users currently pay for gas, before factoring in the cost of retrofitting plants.
This rise may lead to an increase in the prices of final products, a decline in the ability of local companies to compete with imports, and a reduction in production in some sectors. Consumption-intensive establishments also face the possibility of reconsidering investment and expansion plans if the cost of operation becomes unsustainable.
It depends on the current supplies of a group of industries thatIt provides between 70,000 and 100,000 direct jobs, which shows the potential impact of the gas crisis on the labor market. The risks expand with Sasol’s pivotal role in the economy. Its contribution amounted to about 5% of South Africa’s gross domestic product in 2021, while its activities were linked to about 500,000 direct and indirect jobs.
The repercussions do not stop with workers in major factories, as they extend to suppliers, transportation and service companies, farmers, stores, and consumers. Rising costs of chemicals, fertilizers, paper, glass and fuel could trickle down through the economy, adding further pressure on prices.
It is estimated that the country may need between 300 and 400 petajoules of gas annually (a unit for measuring large energy statistics for countries or major sectors such as industry and transportation), equivalent to about 6 to 8Millions of tons of liquefied natural gas, to meet the needs of industrial heating and electricity generation using gas.
This means that current supplies are not sufficient to meet future demand, while delaying decisions increases the possibility of higher prices, a decline in industrial activity, and widening uncertainty. Hence, the gas crisis turns into an issue that is linked to industrial policy and job protection as much as it is linked to energy security.
LNG is ahead of the crisis
A study prepared by Trade & Industrial Policy Strategies in March 2026 believes that importing liquefied natural gas represents the most realistic option in the short and medium term, because new local and regional resources need a longer time before they become ready for commercial use.
Plans are progressing to establishImport terminals at Richards Bay within South Africa, along with regional options at the Port of Matola in Mozambique. The port of Durban can also play a role in receiving liquefied natural gas, but the current pipeline structure is insufficient to deliver coastal supplies to inland industrial areas.
Therefore, the report proposes a strategy based on two complementary paths: The first is through a station in Mozambique that connects to the “Rombco” line and serves the internal market, and the second is through a station in the KwaZulu-Natal province to meet the needs of coastal industries and electricity generation projects.
A time gap raises the cost of alternatives
The vision aims to operate the two stations by mid-2030, but the decline in supplies begins in 2028, leaving a time gap that requires clear transitional arrangements. And it hasThese arrangements include the use of LPG, diesel, electricity, trucked LNG and compressed natural gas.
Other alternatives exist, such as biomethane, green hydrogen, and expanding electricity dependence, but they face constraints related to cost, technical maturity, and infrastructure. Also, some quick solutions may lead to higher emissions, which puts South Africa in front of an equation that combines the continuity of industry and maintaining the low-carbon transition path.
Here, the response to the gas crisis is linked to the seventh goal of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), which relates to providing reliable and affordable energy, because securing alternative supplies is necessary for the continuation of the industry and avoiding high production costs. It also relates to the ninth goal on industry, innovation and infrastructure, as the success of the transitional phase depends on the development of stationsImports, pipelines, and building a more flexible energy system that can accommodate cleaner alternatives in the future.
Current decisions decide after 2030
South Africa published a draft gas master plan, identified Richards Bay as a major import site, and considered the Matola option as a regional route. Some projects have progressed through licensing and environmental approvals, and begun discussions with potential buyers, but each step still requires years of work.
The plan expects demand to reach about 400 petajoules annually in inland areas by 2050, in addition to 350 petajoules in coastal areas. These numbers need to be transformed from planning estimates into implementable procurement contracts, storage projects, pipelines and import facilities.
As requiredThe next stage is to develop a clear strategy that links gas to electricity generation and industry, and determines the size of the required supplies, the parties that will buy them, the pricing and storage mechanisms, and the distribution of risks between the government and investors.
South Africa needs to develop laws and procedures regulating oil and gas projects, especially with regard to the speedy issuance of environmental licenses and clarity of assessment requirements before the start of marine projects. It also requires the establishment of specialized dispute resolution mechanisms, in addition to the use of marine spatial planning to regulate the exploitation of coasts and waters between energy projects, fishing activities, transportation, and environmental protection.
In conclusion, coordination remains the most important factor, because delays in licenses, contracts, station development, or local production projects could affect the country’s ability to secure alternative supplies. The report suggests creating a structureA dedicated executive that brings together government agencies, companies, and investors under one leadership that follows up on decisions and implementation dates.
South Africa knows the timing of the danger, the sectors exposed to it, and the possible solutions, which makes the speed of implementation the decisive factor. The decisions taken during the next few years will determine whether the country will overcome the decline in supplies with minimal losses, or will after 2030 face an industrial and economic crisis broader than the gas shortage itself.
In this regard, The Earth Guards Foundation points out that dealing with the gas crisis requires a vision of balance between protecting jobs, continuing industry, and accelerating the transition towards more sustainable sources. An urgent response should enhance energy security without turning temporary solutions into long-term, high-cost, high-emissions commitments.
